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The Thanksgiving Opportunity: Why Restaurant Owners Can't Afford to Miss This Growing Revenue Stream
October 26, 2025
The Thanksgiving Opportunity: Why Restaurant Owners Can't Afford to Miss This Growing Revenue Stream

Thanksgiving. For decades, it’s been the quintessential holiday for home cooking, a culinary marathon that culminates in a feast shared around a family table. Yet, a seismic shift is underway in how Americans approach this cherished tradition, presenting an unprecedented opportunity for restaurant owners and operators. The question is no longer if restaurants should embrace Thanksgiving, but how they can strategically capitalize on this burgeoning revenue stream.
At Goliath Consulting, we’ve been meticulously tracking this evolution, and the data for 2024 paints a clear picture: ignoring Thanksgiving is no longer an option for the forward-thinking restaurateur.
The Shifting Plate: Unpacking the 2024 Thanksgiving Dining Trends
The numbers speak for themselves. The traditional image of Thanksgiving is rapidly being redrawn by changing consumer habits and economic realities.
Consider this striking statistic: thirty-seven percent of consumers plan to order their Thanksgiving dinner from restaurants in 2024. This isn't just a bump; it's a significant leap from thirty-two percent just the previous year, signaling a powerful and accelerating trend. This growth isn't an anomaly; it builds on foundations laid in prior years, with a 2022 survey already showing that forty-five percent of U.S. consumers planned to order all or part of their Thanksgiving meal from restaurants.
What does this mean for individual establishments? We’re seeing a significant impact on the bottom line. Our clients and industry reports indicate that individual restaurants are pulling in advance orders ranging from ten thousand dollars to an impressive sixty-five thousand dollars for Thanksgiving alone. This isn't just supplemental income; for many, it represents a substantial boost during a traditionally challenging quarter.
The nature of this opportunity has also evolved. While Thanksgiving Day reservations at casual dining chains are up approximately ten percent compared to 2022, the overwhelming trend is towards convenience-driven solutions. Dine-in service has actually declined to just five percent (down from seventeen percent the previous year), while takeout and delivery are surging. This reflects a broader consumer preference for enjoying restaurant-quality meals in the comfort of their homes without the hassle of cooking or the formality of a full restaurant experience.
Beyond traditional restaurants, other segments are also seeing a boom. Food halls and upscale eateries, often known for their diverse offerings and quality ingredients, report a fourteen percent year-over-year increase in catering orders for the holiday. This indicates a broader acceptance and desire for professionally prepared meals across various dining styles.
The "hybrid" model is also gaining traction, with twenty percent of U.S. households now combining home-cooked elements with restaurant-ordered dishes. This highlights the need for flexible offerings that allow consumers to customize their holiday meal experience, whether it's a fully catered feast or just the turkey and sides.
Beyond the Turkey: Understanding Consumer Motivations and Generational Shifts
Why are consumers flocking to restaurants for their Thanksgiving meals? The motivations are clear and deeply rooted in modern lifestyles.
The overwhelming driver, cited by seventy-five percent of consumers, is convenience and ease. In an increasingly busy world, the allure of a stress-free holiday, free from hours of cooking, cleaning, and logistical planning, is incredibly strong. Restaurants offer a compelling solution to the perennial holiday pressures.
Interestingly, thirty-two percent of consumers also find restaurant meals cheaper or comparable to cooking at home. This perception has been validated by recent economic analysis. Wells Fargo research, for the first time in decades, found that it is now more economical to dine out on Thanksgiving than to cook at home, considering the rising costs of groceries, ingredients, and the invaluable factor of time. This economic shift is a powerful persuader, making restaurant Thanksgiving not just convenient, but financially sensible.
Furthermore, a significant generational shift is at play. Nearly half of consumers under thirty-five now prefer restaurant-prepared meals for Thanksgiving. This younger demographic, often less steeped in traditional home-cooking rituals and more accustomed to dining out and ordering in, is driving the long-term sustainability of this trend. They represent the future of holiday dining, and restaurants that cater to their preferences today will build lasting loyalty.
These intertwined motivations – convenience, cost-effectiveness, and generational preference – create a robust foundation for continued growth in the Thanksgiving dining market.
Mastering the Feast: Strategic Considerations for Restaurant Owners
Capitalizing on this Thanksgiving opportunity requires more than just adding a turkey to your menu. It demands strategic planning across every facet of your operation. Goliath Consulting helps restaurant owners navigate these complexities, but here’s what you need to start considering:
1. Menu Planning and Product Offering: The Heart of the Feast
Your Thanksgiving menu needs to be both appealing and operationally feasible.
- Classic versus Creative: While traditional dishes like roasted turkey, mashed potatoes, and pumpkin pie are non-negotiable for many, consider offering elevated versions or unique twists that align with your brand. Do you offer gourmet stuffing or a regional specialty?
- A La Carte versus Bundled Meals: Cater to the hybrid model. Offer full Thanksgiving meal packages for families, but also allow customers to order individual sides, desserts, or just the main protein. This flexibility captures a wider market.
- Portioning and Packaging: Think about family-sized portions and packaging that is secure, transportable, and keeps food at the correct temperature. Presentation, even for takeout, matters.
- Dietary Needs: Offer gluten-free, vegetarian, or vegan options to expand your appeal. Thanksgiving is a time for inclusivity.
2. Operational Excellence: From Prep to Pickup
Thanksgiving is a high-volume, high-pressure event. Your operational plan must be watertight.
- Production Schedule: Develop a meticulous production schedule weeks in advance. Identify peak prep times, assign tasks, and ensure you have the kitchen capacity and equipment to handle the volume.
- Staffing: This is crucial. You'll need extra hands for prep, cooking, packaging, and managing pickup/delivery. Consider bringing in temporary staff or offering overtime. Clearly define roles and responsibilities.
- Inventory Management: Accurately forecast demand for ingredients. Order well in advance, especially for specialty items, to avoid last-minute shortages and inflated prices.
- Quality Control: Standardize recipes and procedures to ensure consistent quality across all orders. This is paramount for customer satisfaction and repeat business.
3. Seamless Ordering & Marketing: Reaching Your Customers
Your ability to attract and efficiently process orders will directly impact your success.
- Digital Dominance: Given the shift to takeout and delivery, a robust digital ordering system is essential. This includes an intuitive online menu, clear pricing, estimated pickup/delivery times, and secure payment processing. Some restaurants are even leveraging AI to manage orders efficiently, reducing errors and improving throughput.
- Pre-Orders and Deadlines: Encourage pre-orders with clear deadlines. This allows you to accurately forecast demand and manage production. Offer incentives for early birds.
- Targeted Marketing: Start your Thanksgiving marketing campaign early. Utilize email marketing, social media (Instagram, Facebook), and local advertising. Highlight the convenience, quality, and any special offerings. Photos of delicious, professionally plated Thanksgiving food are highly effective.
- Clear Communication: Clearly communicate pickup times, delivery windows, and any specific instructions to customers. Reduce friction points wherever possible.
4. Pricing Strategy: Value and Profitability
Pricing needs to reflect both consumer value and your profitability goals.
- Cost Analysis: Thoroughly cost out every menu item, including labor, food costs, packaging, and overhead.
- Competitive Analysis: Research what other local restaurants are offering and at what price points. You want to be competitive but also ensure your pricing reflects the quality and convenience you provide.
- Perceived Value: Emphasize the value proposition: time saved, stress reduced, and a high-quality meal without the mess. This justifies your pricing.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
Even with the best intentions, Thanksgiving can present unique challenges.
- Underestimation of Demand: The biggest mistake is not preparing for the sheer volume. This leads to rushed orders, quality issues, and unhappy customers.
- Logistical Nightmares: Inadequate packaging, unclear pickup instructions, or insufficient delivery drivers can quickly derail even the most delicious meal.
- Staff Burnout: Thanksgiving is a long, demanding day. Ensure your staff are well-rested, fed, and properly compensated to avoid burnout and maintain morale.
- Ignoring Feedback: Pay attention to customer feedback, both positive and negative. It's invaluable for refining your Thanksgiving program next year.
- Lack of Digital Integration: Relying solely on phone orders or an outdated system will quickly overwhelm your team and frustrate customers. Embrace digital solutions.
The Future of Holiday Dining
The trend towards restaurant-prepared Thanksgiving meals is not a fleeting fad; it's a permanent shift in consumer behavior driven by convenience, cost-effectiveness, and generational preferences. Restaurants that adapt and innovate now will secure a significant and recurring revenue stream, solidifying their position as integral parts of their communities' holiday traditions.
Imagine your restaurant becoming the go-to solution for busy families, creating memorable Thanksgiving feasts without the stress. This is the opportunity before you. The future of holiday dining is hybrid, digital, and decidedly restaurant-centric. Don't just watch this trend; become a leader in it.
Our team specializes in helping restaurants develop comprehensive strategies that drive revenue while staying true to your brand. Contact us at http://goliathconsulting.com or email us at getresults@goliathconsulting.com to learn more about our services, including menu development, business strategy, marketing, and restaurant operations.
Sources
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/42-of-consumers-plan-to-order-from-or-dine-at-restaurants-for-thanksgiving-dinner-this-year-popmenu-study-finds-302316008.html
https://www.nrn.com/restaurant-insights
https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/over-third-consumers-ordering-out-thanksgiving-popmenu-survey/734095/
https://www.fsrmagazine.com/industry-news/popmenu-survey-42-percent-plan-to-order-from-or-dine-at-restaurants-for-thanksgiving/
https://www.qsrmagazine.com/news/popmenu-survey-42-percent-plan-to-order-from-or-dine-at-restaurants-for-thanksgiving/
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/ordering-a-thanksgiving-day-dinner-is-a-growing-trend-112624.html

The holiday season is your annual Super Bowl. It’s the time of year when consumer willingness to spend peaks, with an expected 64% of diners planning to order festive meals from restaurants. Yet, many operators fail to maximize this opportunity, sticking to tired menus and missing out on the demand for elevated, trend-forward dining experiences. The difference between a moderately successful holiday season and a breakthrough quarter often hinges on one thing: a strategically designed holiday food menu that balances profitability, operational efficiency, and cutting-edge consumer trends. In this guide, we dive into the data, showing you how to capture guests who are willing to spend 25-49% more for a memorable holiday meal. You’ll learn which menu items are guaranteed hits, how to engineer your offerings for maximum margin, and the operational tactics needed to execute flawlessly during the busiest time of the year. The Changing Holiday Dining Landscape Today's holiday diner isn't just hungry; they're looking for an event. A whopping 67% of diners are specifically seeking "more than a standard dining experience"—they want themed meals, multi-course feasts, and interactive elements. This demand translates directly into high-value bookings. Data shows a 24% surge in premium dining bookings compared to last year, proving that guests are prioritizing quality and atmosphere. Furthermore, the average consumer spending on dining out is up from $166 in 2023 to $191 per month, indicating a higher comfort level with discretionary spending. The Shift to Group and Off-Peak Dining Two critical behavioral shifts are emerging: Group Power: 52% of holiday bookings are now for parties of eight or more. Your menu and operational setup must efficiently accommodate large groups with streamlined ordering and flexible seating. Early Birds: Almost half of diners (49%) prefer to make reservations between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM, a noticeable shift from traditional peak hours. This presents a massive opportunity to maximize table turns and staff efficiency by offering attractive early dining incentives. For small to mid-sized groups, effective restaurant consulting often involves capitalizing on these larger group bookings with fixed-price packages that guarantee check averages and simplify kitchen execution. What Diners Actually Want: Top Holiday Food Trends While the desire for an experience is growing, the dishes themselves are rooted in comfort and tradition—but with a twist. Traditional Favorites Still Reign Supreme Don't abandon the classics! They are the anchor of your holiday menu. Traditional sides, particularly potatoes, are absolute must-haves: 76% of diners favor roasted potatoes, and 75% favor mashed potatoes. Turkey, while still popular at 74%, is actually slightly edged out by potatoes! Ensure your menu features high-quality versions of staples like stuffing, prime rib, and classic desserts. Nostalgia with a Modern, Global Twist Diners crave the familiar but appreciate innovation. The key trend is taking traditional holiday dishes and infusing them with global flavors. Example 1: Instead of standard roast turkey, offer a 'Moroccan Spiced Turkey Breast' rubbed with za’atar and served with apricot-pistachio stuffing. Example 2: Reimagined sides, such as cranberry sauce infused with yuzu or a pumpkin pie spiced with a custom blend of West African peppers. Plant-Based Takes Center Stage Plant-based dining is no longer a niche afterthought; it’s the #1 restaurant trend of 2024. You must offer more than just a token salad. Menu items like a 'Root Vegetable and Mushroom Wellington' or 'Lion's Mane "Pulled Pork"' sliders offer luxurious, substantial alternatives that appeal to the growing segment of health-conscious and sustainable diners. Remember to accommodate dietary needs; avoiding plant-based options is one of the critical mistakes that restaurant marketing consultants advise against. Experience-Centric Dining Interactive elements transform a meal into an event. Consider implementing: Tableside Carving: For a premium roast beef or prime rib, tableside presentation adds drama and perceived value. Interactive Stations: A 'Build-Your-Own Holiday Mezze Platter' or customizable dessert bar allows guests to engage with the food. These experiential elements justify the premium pricing your holiday menu can command. Building a Menu Engineered for Profitability Your goal is to delight guests while maintaining a sustainable food cost percentage, ideally targeting 28-35%. Holiday menus provide the leverage to charge a 20-25% premium on specialty items compared to regular menu pricing. Even your existing popular items can handle a 15% price increase during the holiday season. The Power of Prix Fixe and Bundling The single most effective strategy for increasing average check size is bundle pricing. A three-course prix fixe menu provides perceived value to the guest while guaranteeing revenue and simplifying your kitchen’s execution. This approach, alongside proper menu engineering, can increase overall restaurant profits by 10-15%. High-Margin Heroes Where do you focus your cost-control efforts? Appetizers: These should be profit powerhouses, often boasting higher margins than entrées due to lower cost of ingredients and quick prep time. The Turkey Opportunity: Turkey prices have been significantly lower in 2024, making it a highly profitable main course when properly portioned. Overlapping Ingredients: To minimize the costly waste that plagues the industry (restaurants waste 4-10% of purchased food), design your menu so ingredients are shared. For example, the herbs used for your Prime Rib jus should also be used in your roasted vegetable side dish, reducing inventory and spoilage. Experienced restaurant consultants always emphasize designing a menu that forces the customer’s eye toward the highest-margin items while utilizing common ingredients across the entire holiday offering. Operational Strategies for Flawless Holiday Execution A sophisticated menu requires an efficient kitchen. In a time of persistent staffing shortages, operational excellence is critical to maintaining quality and controlling costs. Waste Reduction is Profit For every $1 invested in reducing food waste, restaurants realize approximately $8 in cost savings. Implement strict FIFO (First In, First Out) inventory management and maximize ingredient utilization through root-to-stem cooking (e.g., using broccoli stems for a side mash) to curb the 4-10% of food waste that eats into your profits. Focused Menu & Training Keep your temporary holiday menu focused—aim for only two to three signature holiday entrées plus a vegetarian option. This prevents kitchen overwhelm and guarantees consistency. Staff training is non-negotiable. Your servers must be experts on the limited-time offerings (LTOs), especially dietary accommodations and the ingredients. Well-trained staff are your best asset in driving the upsell of premium items. Furthermore, use demand forecasting by reviewing last year’s historical data to accurately predict necessary prep and staffing levels, a crucial step when accommodating the growing number of large parties. Marketing Your Holiday Menu for Maximum Impact Your incredible holiday menu needs to be promoted early and often. The psychological power of Limited Time Offers (LTOs) is immense; they drive an 81% increase in guest likelihood to visit. Launch your LTOs and promotions by early November, using deadlines (like November 15th for early booking incentives) to create urgency. Focus your marketing on the experience—the cozy atmosphere, the festive feeling, and the premium quality. Visual content is essential. Use social media and email marketing to showcase the beautiful plating and unique environment. Email campaigns should offer exclusive early-access to reservations or a free appetizer for booking before a specific date, capitalizing on the anticipated 15-20% growth in gift card purchases. This proactive, experience-focused promotion is the core of smart restaurant marketing consulting. Common Mistakes to Avoid Chasing Trends Over Tradition: While innovation is important, failing to offer high-quality versions of classics (like potatoes and turkey) will alienate a large segment of diners. Over-Complicating the Menu: Too many menu items slow down the kitchen and confuse servers. Keep it focused and profitable. Starting Too Late: If your promotions don't start until Thanksgiving, you’ve missed the prime booking window. Ignoring Dietary Needs: Neglecting robust plant-based, gluten-free, and allergy-friendly options immediately shuts out a significant portion of potential high-value bookings. Poor Waste Management: Allowing 4-10% of your purchased food to go to waste is the fastest way to erase your high-margin potential. Secure Your Record-Breaking Season The holiday season offers a unique dual opportunity: satisfy your guests’ desire for memorable, experience-centric dining while delivering unprecedented profitability to your business. By integrating the popularity of classic dishes with modern, high-margin twists, leveraging the efficiency of prix fixe menus, and committing to operational excellence, you can easily capture the premium spending that defines the 2024-2025 holiday diner. Implement these strategies now. If optimizing your menu and operational efficiency seems daunting, seeking professional restaurant consultants can help you streamline the process and ensure a successful, profitable end-of-year rush.

The Business Impact of New ICE Raids on Latin American Restaurants in the U.S. The recent increase in immigration enforcement activity by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is creating significant operational and financial challenges for Latin American restaurants nationwide. These establishments represent a major component of the U.S. hospitality industry, employing hundreds of thousands of workers and contributing billions to the economy. As enforcement actions intensify, restaurant operators are facing workforce disruptions, declining sales, and heightened compliance concerns. Workforce Disruptions and Labor Shortages Labor stability remains the most immediate challenge. Latin American restaurants, like many in the hospitality sector, rely on a diverse labor pool that often includes immigrants. The renewed ICE operations have led to sudden employee absences, voluntary resignations, and difficulty recruiting new team members. In certain regions—particularly in states with large Latino populations such as Texas, California, and Florida—restaurant owners report losing up to 20% of their workforce within weeks of increased enforcement activity. These shortages are directly affecting service capacity, operational hours, and menu consistency. Many restaurants have been forced to shorten hours or reduce offerings due to the inability to staff kitchens or front-of-house positions adequately. Financial Consequences and Sales Declines Revenue declines are also being reported across multiple markets. Restaurants that depend on local, community-based traffic are experiencing a measurable drop in dine-in sales, estimated by some operators at 25–40%. Although delivery and takeout channels remain active, these models generally yield lower margins and higher third-party fees. For smaller, family-owned establishments that operate on tight cost structures, this loss of volume poses a substantial threat to profitability. Additionally, some suppliers and distributors serving these restaurants are seeing reduced order volumes, suggesting the ripple effect of the enforcement environment extends through the broader food-service supply chain. Compliance, Risk, and Legal Exposure The renewed focus on worksite enforcement has also introduced higher compliance costs. Restaurant owners are investing additional time and resources into verifying employment eligibility, reviewing documentation, and training managers on proper I-9 procedures. Legal counsel specializing in immigration and employment law have noted a rise in consultation requests from independent operators seeking to mitigate liability. Recent court decisions—such as the October 2025 ruling in Missouri and Kansas that limited ICE’s authority in certain warrantless arrest cases—offer partial guidance, but the regulatory environment remains fluid and regionally inconsistent. Industry and Market Implications If current trends continue, analysts expect a temporary contraction in the Latin American restaurant segment, particularly among small independent operators. Larger multi-unit groups with established HR and compliance infrastructure are better positioned to absorb the disruption, while single-unit restaurants may face consolidation pressures. At a market level, the reduction in operating capacity could result in slower service, higher menu prices, and shifts in customer demand toward larger chains or non-affected cuisines. Over time, these dynamics could alter competitive balance in key metro markets where Latino dining establishments have historically been strong community anchors and economic contributors. Conclusion The escalation of ICE enforcement actions has introduced new layers of operational risk to Latin American restaurants across the U.S. The effects are being felt in workforce stability, sales performance, and compliance costs. For owners and operators, the path forward will require enhanced documentation practices, proactive communication with legal advisors, and flexible business models capable of adapting to ongoing labor and regulatory volatility. While the cultural and community value of these restaurants remains undeniable, the current climate underscores the need for strategic management and preparedness within one of America’s most resilient—and now most scrutinized—restaurant sectors.

Introduction Nice work — you made it to the third and final post in our Fall/Winter 2025 LTO series. If you ran the creative and the marketing, this piece is the practical follow-through: how to make the promotion actually work on the floor, in the kitchen, and at the ordering screen. This is written for local operators running one to a few locations. You’ll find simple, usable steps for training your team, keeping inventory sensible, working with suppliers, and measuring what matters — all in a friendly, low stress way you can put into practice this week. ________________________________________ Training: keep it short, clear, and useful Don’t overcomplicate training. Make one short sheet that tells the LTO’s story, lists ingredients and allergens, shows a plated photo, and gives a couple of quick lines for staff to use with guests. Everyone signs off before the first shift so you start with the same baseline. Practice matters more than paperwork. Run one short practice service, taste the item with servers, and let cooks walk through the steps together. Use short 3–7 minute refreshers between shifts, and reward the first people who finish training with a small perk — free coffee, a shift meal, or a gift card. That little boost gets buy-in fast. Training Module Front-of-House (FOH) Back-of-House (BOH) Product Knowledge Item description, ingredients, allergen info, menu positioning Recipe steps, ingredient handling, equipment settings, plating standards Upselling & Service Sales scripts, suggestive selling, handling questions or complaints N/A Execution Steps Ticket entry, special notations, communicating sell-outs Prep timing, portioning, plating, special handling Troubleshooting What to do if item is 86’d, customer confusion, long waits Substitutions, batch prep issues, out-of-stock protocols Communication Reporting guest feedback trends, service issues Communicating backlogs, shortages, or failures to FOH ________________________________________ Pre-launch: simple planning that prevents headaches Think of an LTO like a weekend pop-up. Make a short checklist and a timeline — nothing fancy. Key items: recipe locked, POS updated, staff trained, promos printed, and the first shipment received. Run a friends-and-family shift if you can; that one rehearsal solves more problems than pages of notes. On launch day, gather your team for a 10-minute huddle. Confirm who’s doing what, check par levels, and name the escalation path: who calls the vendor, who covers the line, and who talks to customers if there’s a delay. Clear roles keep the day calm. ________________________________________ Recipes: clear, consistent, and forgiving A good recipe is your best friend. Write it down with weights, a photo, and one or two “must-do” steps (e.g., don’t over-sauce, finish under heat for 30 seconds). Keep it practical for the pace you work at — if it’s a busy lunch spot, simplify plating; if you’re a dinner service with servers explaining dishes, include talking points. Add a short troubleshooting note: “If browned too quickly, lower heat 20%” or “If sauce runs, hold off on garnish until right before serving.” Little tips reduce mistakes and save time. ________________________________________ Pars and ordering: be conservative at first When you launch something new, start small. Estimate daily sales, add a 10–15% buffer, and order that first delivery. Check sales the first two days and adjust. If you overshot, use excess ingredients in specials, staff meals, or daily features — don’t let them sit and spoil. Highlight LTO items on your order guide so the buyer doesn’t miss them. If your supplier can do smaller, more frequent deliveries, ask — it’s a great way to avoid waste without sacrificing availability. ________________________________________ Inventory basics without the fancy tech If you don’t have integrated systems, that’s fine. Use a simple spreadsheet or a clipboard count. Do a quick count at the start and end of each day during week one, then every few days after that. Track usage versus what you expected and adjust orders fast. For perishables, rotate stock (FIFO), label prep with dates, and keep an eye on any ingredient that shows up only for the LTO. If something’s not moving, mark it down or make a staff special before it goes bad. ________________________________________ Work with suppliers like a partner Tell your supplier about the LTO early — what you need, when, and how much. It helps them plan and keeps you from surprise shortages. Ask if they’ll do smaller cases or staggered drops for the first week. Also, confirm what happens after the run ends: will they take back unused cases, or can you return unopened boxes? A supplier that understands your rhythm is worth more than a slightly cheaper price. ________________________________________ Waste control that won’t stress you out Design the LTO so parts of it can be reused: a sauce that works on a sandwich, a protein that can top a salad, or a garnish that refreshes a daily special. Promote an “end of run” special two days before the takedown to move extra product. Small changes like this cut waste and recover your cost if sales are slower than hoped. ________________________________________ Keep score — but keep it simple Track a few things each day: how many LTO items sold, food cost for the item (roughly), any extra labor time, and guest feedback. A short end-of-day note from the manager on what went well and what didn’t is incredibly useful. Run a short post-mortem after the promotion: what sold, what didn’t, what to tweak next time. This isn’t about spreadsheets for spreadsheets’ sake — it’s about learning so the next LTO runs smoother. ________________________________________ Quick examples that make the point We’ve seen small operations win big with these basics. One owner tested a fried-sandwich special and learned they needed one extra fryer basket during lunch — simple fix, big lift in speed. Another turned leftover specialty slaw into a discounted side two days before the takedown and cleared their remaining stock while keeping guests happy. Small adjustments, quick reactions, and honest team feedback make the difference. ________________________________________ Final checklist — what to do this week • Lock the recipe and print one quick cheat sheet. • Run one practice service and get signoffs. • Order conservatively and plan a mid-week reorder. • Label and rotate all LTO ingredients. • Do daily counts during week one and jot manager notes. • Run a short post-mortem and capture two things to change next time. body content of your post goes here. To edit this text, click on it and delete this default text and start typing your own or paste your own from a different source. Goliath Consulting Group is a restaurant consultancy group based in Atlanta, Georgia. To learn more about our services including menu development, business strategy, marketing, and restaurant operations, contact us at http://www.goliathconsulting.com or email us at getresults@goliathconsulting

The Phenomenon From Baby Boomers to Gen Z: A Generational Divide The current decline in alcohol consumption is not a fleeting trend but an accelerating, long-term generational shift. A Gallup poll shows that the percentage of American adults who report drinking alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest point in three decades. This trend is particularly pronounced among the younger generation. According to research, the share of adults under age 35 who drink has dropped by 0 percentage points, from 72% in 2001-2003 to 62% in 2021-2023. This suggests that today’s young people are the least frequent drinkers in recent decades. These changes are starkly reflected in consumer spending data. In 2021, U.S. Gen Z consumers spent just over $2.2 billion on alcohol, the lowest amount compared to all other age groups. Further reports reveal that 21.5% of Gen Z abstains from alcohol entirely, while 39% consume it only on occasion. Additionally, Gen Z consumes about one-third less beer and wine than previous generations. These figures not only validate a bar owner’s concerns but also signal that the traditional “party-hard” model is becoming obsolete. This is not a temporary fad but a lasting trend that requires a fundamental business model adjustment. Taking a Different Path: The Unexpected Impact of Economic Factors When exploring the reasons for Gen Z’s reduced drinking, a commonly overlooked factor is the economy. While many attribute the shift to changing values, a senior beverage analyst at a drinks company put it bluntly: “Gen Z ain’t got no money”. Compared to previous generations, today’s young people have lower incomes, less stable employment, and many have yet to reach the legal drinking age. Their disposable income is naturally limited. Interestingly, data indicates that Gen Z spends the same proportion of their after-tax income on alcohol as Millennials did at the same age. This suggests that Gen Z isn’t inherently averse to drinking; rather, they simply have less money to spend. For bar owners, this means the challenge isn’t just about “selling alcohol” but about convincing consumers that, within a limited budget, “going out for a drink” is a worthwhile and high-value experience. This forces businesses to reconsider their value proposition: Are they selling a beverage or an unparalleled social experience? The Drivers Health Above All: Prioritizing Physical and Mental Well-being Gen Z’s focus on physical and mental health is at an unprecedented level. They are more aware of alcohol’s negative effects than previous generations and see it as a potential health risk. A Gallup poll found that 53% of U.S. adults now believe moderate drinking is harmful to health, a view driven primarily by young people. Two-thirds of respondents aged 8 to 34 hold this view. Crucially, mental health awareness plays a central role in this trend. While Gen Z reports higher rates of anxiety and depression, they are also more willing to seek professional psychological help. They openly discuss their sobriety journeys on social media platforms to manage their emotions and cope with stress. For this generation, alcohol is no longer a tool for “relaxing” or “de-stressing.” Instead, it can be a stumbling block to emotional stability and quality sleep. In fact, 34% of Gen Z cite mental health as a reason for abstaining, and 46% say they are “simply not interested in drinking”. Therefore, bars can no longer position themselves solely as places of “indulgence” but must adapt to consumers’ pursuit of “self-care” and “wellness.” The Digital Footprint and the Desire for “Control” The digital age has fundamentally altered the rules of socializing for young people. The ubiquity of smartphones and social media creates a constant state of digital surveillance. In 1991, 64% of U.S. high school seniors had been drunk at least once, but by 2024, that figure had dropped to just 33%, with two-thirds of the decline occurring after 2012, the year smartphones became widespread. Today, the risk of leaving a “digital footprint” after getting drunk has evolved from a social faux pas into a permanent public record that is impossible to erase. This pushes Gen Z to be more cautious in social settings and to “maintain control and avoid embarrassing moments that might be documented online”. This desire for “control” stands in stark contrast to the “indulgence: mentality of previous generations. If bars continue to promote a “binge drinking” culture, they will be out of sync with Gen Z’s core values. Instead, creating an environment that encourages safe, mindful consumption and offers curated social experiences will meet their new demands. The Shift in Socializing: From “Drinking” to “Doing” Gen Z’s social life is being redefined. They prefer to socialize at home or at friends’ houses rather than at traditional bars and nightclubs. They are actively creating “activity-centered” social patterns, such as escape rooms, rock climbing, pottery classes, or immersive art exhibitions. In addition, “wellness-focused gatherings,” such as yoga classes and “sober raves,” are increasingly popular among Gen Z. These activities all provide an interactive environment for people to connect without relying on alcohol. The bar’s status as a social venue is facing unprecedented competition. It is no longer the only “place to go” and must now compete with a wide range of engaging activities. Successful bars need to transform their space from a simple drinking spot into a social hub that offers unique, non-alcohol-centric experiences. The business model must shift from selling beverages to selling a curated social experience. The Unexpected Impact of Demographics A subtle, but often overlooked, factor is a fundamental demographic shift. Traditionally, men, especially white men, have been the main drivers of alcohol consumption volume. However, their share of the drinking population is declining, being replaced by women and people of color—two groups that have historically consumed less alcohol. Today, women make up most alcohol consumers under the age of 25, and their average consumption is only half that of men. Furthermore, Gen Z is the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history. This indicates that even if individual drinking habits within each demographic group remain unchanged, overall, per-capita alcohol consumption is bound to decline due to these population shifts. This is a structural, permanent challenge, not just a change in consumer sentiment. Key Drivers of the Sober Shift Health & Wellness Awareness of negative health effects; connection to anxiety and depression; viewing sobriety as a form of self-care. Economic Factors Lower disposable income; price sensitivity; a desire to save money. Digital Culture Fear of a permanent digital footprint; desire to maintain control; normalization of sober culture on social media. Social Norms & Demographics Shift to activity-centered socializing; rise of non-alcohol-centric events; a demographic shift towards groups who historically drink less (women, people of color). The Strategy Rethinking the Product: Embracing the “No & Low” Menu Gen Z’s beverage choices reflect their preference for novel flavors and convenience. Studies show that spirits and Ready-to-Drink (RTD) products are the most popular categories among Gen Z, while traditional wine and beer have a mixed outlook. More than half of Gen Z drinkers “often or sometimes” choose non-alcoholic beers, mocktails, or low-ABV cocktails when socializing. Non-alcoholic beers like Heineken 0.0 and Guinness 0.0 are even considered “trendy” brands by Gen Z. Therefore, a bar’s inventory model must expand beyond traditional alcoholic beverages. Bars should position themselves as “beverage destinations,” not merely “alcohol providers.” Specific suggestions include: • Develop a premium mocktail program: Offer complex and visually appealing non-alcoholic cocktails to satisfy Gen Z’s desire for flavor exploration. • Curate a selection of non-alcoholic and low-ABV options: Create a diverse menu of non-alcoholic beers, spirits, and low-alcohol beverages. Highlight “better-for-you” qualities such as natural ingredients, organic fermentation, or functional ingredients like vitamins and adaptogens. By making non-alcoholic beverages a premium, core product line, a bar can directly meet Gen Z’s demand for health, self-care, and flavor innovation. Redefining the Venue: From “Intoxication” to “Experience” The shift in Gen Z’s social patterns requires bars to reimagine their reason for existence. If a bar is just a place for “drinking,” it will be unable to compete with at-home gatherings and new types of event venues. A bar must transform itself from a simple drinking spot into a place that offers a unique social experience. • Host activity-based social events: Organize regular weekly or monthly events centered around activities, such as trivia nights, board game nights, live music performances, or mixology workshops. • Cultivate a “third space” atmosphere: Create an environment that prioritizes community and genuine human connection. Make people feel comfortable and safe, whether they are drinking or not. This atmosphere provides a unique social experience that cannot be replicated at home, offering consumers a valuable reason to go out. Marketing Strategies for the Modern Drinker Traditional top-down advertising is largely ineffective for Gen Z, a generation of digital natives. They place greater trust in recommendations from friends, family, and relevant influencers. Successful marketing must be a two-way conversation that builds an authentic community around the brand. • Embrace a digital-first strategy: Invest heavily in social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube. Produce short, shareable video content, such as 5-second cocktail recipes or fun behind-the-scenes clips. • Collaborate with micro-influencers: Partner with micro-influencers who have authentic niches in areas like mixology, wellness coaching, or food. • Encourage user-generated content (UGC): Create branded hashtags, filters, or remixable music to inspire users to post original content related to the brand. Use an authentic, creative, and inclusive tone, focusing on celebrating human connection and mindful drinking, and avoid outdated “party-hard” or “macho” imagery. The goal of a bar’s marketing should not be to convince Gen Z to drink but to show how the bar’s beverages and atmosphere can enhance the lifestyle they seek—one focused on health, fun, and authentic connection. Gen Z’s Preferred Drink Categories (Alcoholic and Non-Alcoholic) Preferred Categories Spirits (especially white spirits like tequila and flavored vodka), Ready-to-Drink (RTD) canned cocktails, hard seltzers, mocktails, non-alcoholic beers (e.g., Heineken 0.0), adaptogen-infused spritzers. Flavor variety, convenience, health consciousness, self-care, suits at-home socializing. Mixed or Declining Categories Traditional beer, red wine, heavy spirits. Lower consumption among women and people of color; does not align with “health” or “control” narratives; considered less novel in taste than spirits and RTDs. Goliath Consulting Group is a restaurant consultancy group based in Atlanta, Georgia. To learn more about our services including menu development, business strategy, marketing, and restaurant operations, contact us at http://www.goliathconsulting.com or email us at getresults@goliathconsulting.com







